CONVERSA FRANCA
Dados mais próximos da realidade
Quem acompanha disputas eleitorais mais próximo dos núcleos de decisão (partidos, Judiciário, imprensa etc) sabe que as pesquisas eleitorais sempre foram usadas com duas intenções: a primeira é a da indução; depois, a divulgação da apuração real das intenções de votos.
Do final de 2021 a julho deste ano, foram divulgadas pesquisas em quantidade antes nunca vista neste país, apurações semanais, e em quase todas elas o ex-presidente Lula (PT) aparecia como imbatível, muitas das vezes com até mais de 20 pontos à frente do atual presidente, Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Aos poucos, porém, alguns institutos começam a diminuir suas dosagens e vão equilibrando suas apurações, havendo até levantamentos com inversão de quem realmente lidera.
Para justificar esses novos números, os “analistas” começam atribuir queda nos preços dos combustíveis, aumento do benefício social, aparição da primeira-dama ao lado do marido etc para mostrar como foi a reação do presidente. Pode ter ter contribuído, estes fatos, para o novo cenário, mas o que está pensando mesmo é que chegou o momento de contar verdade, e nenhum instituto vai querer sair dessa eleição com imagem arranhada, por isso começam a mostrar números reais, mas a conta-gotas.
Campanha parecidas
A eleição deste ano está muito parecida com duas, uma mais antiga e outra mais recente. Em 1999, tal como agora, Fernando Collor de Melo enfrentou campanha ostensiva de artistas, intelectuais e jornalistas que defendiam a candidatura de Lula. Nos aeroportos, ele sempre passava por um corredor polonês de repórteres que cantaam “Lula, lá”, e depois, com a maior isenção, iam entrevistá-lo. Não deu certo, Collor ganhou.
Em 2018, Geraldo Alckmin, hoje candidato a vice de Lula, conseguiu formar o maior número de partidos coligados e muitos o davam como futuro presidente. Nem de longe ameaçou chegar no segundo turno.
PENSANDO BEM…
Se não havia nenhuma relação relação entre imposto alto e gasolina cara, por que o preço na bomba caiu quando o imposto diminuiu? Após redução do ICMS, preço do litro da gasolina no Maranhão cai em até R$ 2,50 nas bombas. (Assista a meu comentário aqui)
Hora da aposentadoria
Brigando por três títulos pelo Athletico Paranaense – Campeonato Brasileiro, Copa do Brasil e Copa Libertadores – Luiz Felipe Scolari, o Felipão, anuncia que está se aposentando.
Após a classificação do Furacão, nesta quinta-feira (11) contra o Studiantes, em La Plata (Argentina) para as quartas de final da Libertadores, ele disse que deve virar cartola, pois o clube para o qual trabalha hoje, o quer como diretor de Futebol.
Ele disse que antes do final do ano decide o seu destino.
PERGUNTAR NÃO OFENDE
É ou não é estranho o coordenador de campanha do governador Carlos Brandão vir a público anunciar que um de seus adversários já está no segundo turno?
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