Candidato do PSC ultrapassa Weverton na margem de erro
AQUILES EMIR
Faltando pouco mais de dois pontos percentuais para ter sua reeleição confirmada neste domingo (02), o governador do Maranhão, Carlos Brandao (PSB), corre o risco de ter de enfrentar um segundo turno e seu provável adversário nesta segunda roda seria o ex-prefeito de São Pedro dos Crentes Lahésio Bonfim, que concorre pelo PSC. É o que indica levantamento do Ipec divulgado na noite deste sábado (1º) pela TV Mirante (Globo).
De acordo com a pesquisa, considerando-se apenas os votos válidos, Brandão pode conquistar 48% dos votos neste primeiro turno. Na sequência aparecem, tecnicamente empatados, Lahesio Bonfim (PSC) e Weverton Rocha (PDT), com 23% e 22%, respectivamente.
Considerando a margem de erro, que é de três pontos para mais ou para menos, Carlos Brandão pode ter de 45% a 51% dos votos, e Lahésio, de 20% a 26%, ou seja, tanto podem estará separados por 25 pontos quanto por 31 ou 19 pontos.
Já Weverton Rocha pode ter 19% a 25%, ou seja, sua distância para Lahésio tanto pode ser de apenas um ponto quanto de quatro ou de sete pontos. E ainda pode estar à frente com cinco pontos a mais.
Num eventual segundo turno, o Ipec projeta a vitória do atual governador com qualquer um dos adversários.
Pesquisa estimulada para governador em 1º turno, considerando apenas os votos válidos (sem brancos e nulos):
Carlos Brandão (PSB) – 48% Lahesio Bonfim (PSC) – 23% – Weverton Rocha (PDT) – 22% Edivaldo Holanda Jr (PSD) – 5% Joás Moraes (DC) – 1% Simplício Araújo (SD) – 1% Enilton Rodrigues (Psol) – 0% Frankle Costa (PCB) – 0% Hertz Dias (PSTU) – não pontuou
Segundo turno
Cenário 1 – Carlos Brandão x Lahesio Bomfim Carlos Brandão (PSB) – 54% Lahesio Bonfim (PSC) – 37% Brancos e nulos –5% Não sabem ou não responderam – 5%
Cenário 1 – Carlos Brandão x Weverton Rocha Carlos Brandão (PSB) – 54% Weverton Rocha (PDT) – 32% Brancos e nulos – 10% Não sabem ou não responderam – 4%
Senado – Quanto à disputa para o Senado, a vitória do ex-governador Flávio Dino (PSB) parece estar confirmada com mais do dobro do segundo colocado, o atual senador Roberto Rocha (PTB). Veja os números, considerando apenas os votos válidos:
Flávio Dino (PSB) – 63% Roberto Rocha (PTB) – 31% Pastor Ivo Nogueira (DC) – 4% Antonia Cariongo (Psol) – 2% Saulo Arcangeli (PSTU) – 1%
A pesquisa, encomendada pela TV Mirante, entrevistou 800 eleitores no Maranhão entre os dias 28 e 30 de setembro. A margem de erro do levantamento é de três pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos, com nível de confiança de 95%. A pesquisa foi registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob os protocolos MA-03514/2022 e BR-00459/2022.
(Com informações da Gazeta do Povo)
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