Levantamento foi divulgado nesta terça-feira
Pesquisa Ipespe divulgada nesta terça-feira (11) indica que o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) mantém uma diferença de oito pontos percentuais à frente do presidente Jair Bolsonaro (PL), faltando 19 dias para a votação do segundo turno. A pesquisa foi realizada em parceria com a Associação Brasileira de Pesquisadores Eleitorais (Abrapel).
Foram ouvidos 1,1 mil eleitores, por telefone, entre os dias 8 e 10 de outubro. De acordo com os dados, Lula tem 50% das intenções de votos totais e Bolsonaro aparece com 43%. Outros 4% disseram que não votariam em nenhum dos candidatos, anulariam o voto ou votariam em branco, enquanto 2% não responderam.
O Ipespe constatou que Lula obtém apoio maior que o atual presidente entre os eleitores de Simone Tebet (MDB) − 55% a 16% − e de Ciro Gomes (PDT) − 44% a 36%. Ambos declararam apoio ao petista no segundo turno, embora no caso do ex-ministro o endosso tenha se dado de forma tímida.
Quando levados em conta apenas os votos válidos (excluindo-se brancos e nulos), Lula teria 54% e Bolsonaro contaria com 46% dos votos, ou seja, oito pontos de diferente.A margem máxima de erro estimada é de 3 pontos percentuais para cima ou para baixo, considerando o total da amostra, o que significa dizer que o petista pode ter de 51% a 57%, enquanto o atual presidente, de 43% a 49%, ou seja, os dois podem estar separados para uma diferença mínima de dois pontos ou máximo de 14.“A distância registrada no momento confere a esse segundo turno um formato diverso de outras eleições que terminaram com margens mais confortáveis para o líder, considerados os votos totais. A exemplo de 2002 (Lula +17) , 2006 (Lula +16 ) e mesmo 2010 (Dilma +11). E nos remete à comparação do mesmo com 1989 ( Collor +5 ), e 2014 (Dilma +2)”, observa o cientista político Antonio Lavareda, presidente do Conselho Científico do Ipespe.O levantamento também capturou a rejeição de cada candidato entre os eleitores. Dos entrevistados, 49% dizem que não votariam em Bolsonaro e 45% em Lula. Já no campo da certeza de voto, a distância entre ambos é de seis pontos percentuais: 47% para o petista e 41% para o candidato à reeleição.Dos que pretendem votar em Lula, 6% dizem que “poderiam votar” em Bolsonaro. Já entre os eleitores do atual mandatário, 4% dizem que “poderiam votar” no ex-presidente.A pesquisa entrevistou 1.100 eleitores de todas as regiões do país. A margem de erro é de 3 pontos percentuais, para mais ou para menos, com índice de confiança de 95,45%. O levantamento foi registrado no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob o protocolo BR-01120/2022.(Com informações do Infomoney)
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