Por SÉRGIO CARVALHO
Campinas, SP, 14 (AFI) – Já sabemos que futebol não é matemática, não é ciência exata. De repente um fato novo acontece, e desmancha todo o raciocínio feito em relação aos candidatos ao título brasileiro da temporada. Até a última rodada, eu ainda esperava uma reação forte do Botafogo carioca. Não aconteceu. Ao contrário. Mais uma vez o clube da Estrela Solitária pisou na bola e cedeu um empate em Bragança ao Red Bull, numa partida em que quase sempre foi melhor em campo.
Ou seja: o Bota se desarvorou taticamente e perdeu toda sua autoconfiança, que parecia inabalável durante todo o primeiro turno do Brasileirão 2023. Depois de tudo que observei, já não acredito mais no alvinegro carioca. Aposto agora, no Palmeiras, que faz campanha consistente, apresenta hoje um futebol objetivo e envolvente, e está com sua moral robustecida depois de alguns bons resultados que conseguiu nas últimas rodadas (com exceção do jogo diante do Flamengo). Posso até errar mas, neste momento, meu favorito ao título brasileiro da temporada é o Verdão. Depois dele, Grêmio Porto Alegrense e Red Bull Bragantino. O Botafogo, em minha opinião, é mesmo carta fora do baralho.
SEIS CANDIDATOS
Na prática, seis clubes surgem como candidatos ao título. Palmeiras, Botafogo, Grêmio, Red Bull, Atlético Mineiro e Flamengo. A diferença de pontos entre eles é pequena. O Palmeiras tem 62, enquanto o Atlético Mineiro e o Flamengo 57. Ou seja, são cinco pontos apenas entre o líder e o sexto colocado. Como faltam quatro rodadas para o final do campeonato, teoricamente, estes seis clubes ainda teriam chance de levantar a taça.
Mas não é bem assim. O Botafogo, como já disse, está fora dessa briga pelos motivos que indiquei. O Grêmio, ao contrário, tem sim chance de alcançar o Palmeiras, porque a diferença entre os dois times é de apenas três pontos e faltam doze para serem disputados. E para que vocês tenham uma idéia dos adversários destes clubes, fiz uma pesquisa para facilitar sua análise. O Palmeiras pega o Fortaleza fora, o América- MG e o Fluminense, em casa, e o Cruzeiro fora. O Verdão pode vencer os quatro, porque, no momento, está em fase técnica melhor do que todos eles.
JOGOS MAIS DIFÍCEIS
O Botafogo terá pela frente o Santos, em casa, o Coritiba, fora, o Cruzeiro, em casa, e o Inter, fora. O Grêmio terá Atlético MIneiro, fora, Goiás e Vasco, em casa e Fluminense, fora. O Red Bull vai enfrentar o Inter, fora, o Fortaleza e o Coritiba, em casa, e o Vasco, fora. O Atlético MG pega o Grêmio em casa, o Flamengo, fora, o São Paulo em casa e o Bahia, fora. E o Flamengo encara o América- MG, fora, Athlético PR e Cuiabá, em casa, e São Paulo, fora.
Lembro que, Botafogo, Red Bull e Flamengo, têm um jogo a menos e podem melhorar suas situações se vencerem estas partidas. Mas levando em consideração só os quatro jogos que faltam para o final do campeonato, dá para perceber que o caminho do Palmeiras é menos complicado. Por isso, o indico como provável campeão.
FUGINDO DO FANTASMA DA SÉRIE B
Enquanto isso, na zona de rebaixamento, um clube já é carta fora do baralho, o América Mineiro, que já caiu. Ainda estão ameaçados, Coritiba, Goiás, Cruzeiro, Bahia e Vasco. No caso do Coritiba, não vejo como ele poderá se salvar porque tem apenas 29 pontos e só poderá chegar aos 41. Para mim, não vai escapar da degola. Entre os outros ameaçados, vejo o Goiás muito perto do rebaixamento. O Cruzeiro e o Bahia disputam a quarta vaga. Quanto a Vasco, Santos, Inter e Fortaleza, que somam 42 e 43 pontos, acredito que conseguirão somar os pontos necessários para se salvarem.
Assim, por esta análise, estarão na segunda divisão em 2024, Cruzeiro, Goiás, Coritiba e América MG. Mas posso errar um ou outro. Vamos aguardar e ver no que dá. Em tempo: última rodada do Brasileirão deste ano será no dia 6 de dezembro. Serão mais 22 dias até lá. Aguardem e confiram se minhas previsões estão certas.
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Thanks for another great post. Where else may anybody get that type of info in such an ideal way of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I’m at the search for such information.
Your resources are well developed.
Well done! Keep up this quality!
I don’t know if it’s just me or if everybody else experiencing issues with your site. It appears as though some of the written text on your content are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This could be a problem with my web browser because I’ve had this happen before. Appreciate it
have already been reading ur blog for a couple of days. really enjoy what you posted. btw i will be doing a report about this topic. do you happen to know any great websites or forums that I can find out more? thanks a lot.
Public policy is key here, and our states need to develop some strategies – – soon.
Just wanna admit that this is extremely helpful, Thanks for taking your time to write this.
Certainly. And I have faced it. Let’s discuss this question. Here or in PM.
My issues have been very similar, with my family. But, we made some different decisions. It’s complex.
Of course, what a great site and informative posts, I will add backlink – bookmark this site? Regards, Reader
Sweet blog! I found it while browsing on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you
Assume you are doing good linking to position you on the first pages of search engines.
My issues have been very similar, with my family. But, we made some different decisions. It’s complex.
I imagine so. Very good stuff, I agree totally.