Campinas, SP, 04 – Enquanto a disputa pelo título brasileiro está praticamente definida para o Palmeiras, a parte inferior da tabela do Campeonato Brasileiro guarda emoção até a última rodada. Três times ainda correm riscos de rebaixamento, com apenas uma vaga restante na zona da degola. A situação mais complicada é do Bahia, mas Vasco e Santos ainda não estão livres.
O time paulista chega ameaçado depois de perder por 3 a 0 para o Athletico-PR, no domingo. Com 43 pontos, a equipe ocupa o 15º lugar, seguido por Vasco (42) e Bahia (41). O time carioca perdeu para o Grêmio, e os baianos tiveram um revés contra o América-MG. Já estão rebaixados o América-MG, o Coritiba e o Goiás.
Segundo o Departamento de Matemática da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), os riscos de queda são maiores para o Bahia, com 68,9%. O Vasco tem 68,9%, e o Santos, 6,2%. Para não depender do resultado dos concorrentes pela permanência na elite no futebol, o time alvinegro tem de vencer o seu compromisso.
Os cariocas recebem o Red Bull Bragantino em São Januário e também dependem apenas de uma vitória. Os baianos encaram o Atlético-MG, na Arena Fonte Nova.
Para ficar na Série A, o time de Rogério Ceni precisa vencer e contar com derrota de um dos outros dois. Dos outros três possíveis que podem fechar a zona de rebaixamento, somente o Santos nunca caiu. Bahia e Vasco já enfrentaram o descenso para a Série B quatro vezes cada.
CHANCES DE O PALMEIRAS SER CAMPEÃO SÃO QUASE 100%
O título brasileiro tem tudo para ficar com o Palmeiras. Com 69 pontos, o Palmeiras tem três de frente para os concorrentes e com uma enorme vantagem no saldo de gols. Ou seja, mesmo que sofra uma derrota diante do Cruzeiro, na última rodada, no Mineirão, e os rivais vençam (o que iria igualar o número de vitórias e pontos), é praticamente impossível ser ultrapassado no critério de desempate seguinte, que é o saldo de gols.
A provável festa pelo bicampeonato será em Belo Horizonte. Segundo a UFMG, as chances de título são de 99,6%. Botafogo e Atlético-MG ainda têm minimiza chance: de 0,3% e 0,027%, respectivamente.
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